And Factory Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
5,515.07
1 Week
5,731.51
1 Month
6,296.11
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 6, 2018 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1355 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1566 | 61.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8557 | 358.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0257 | -8.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1,511.2280 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1355 days
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