Asahi Rubber Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
6,854.07
1 Week
3,621.49
1 Month
3,487.23
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 1998 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1253 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8882 | 398.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0442 | -0.30 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.3898 | 1.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0135 | 0.71 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0014 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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