V-Lab
Arich Enterprise Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
4,824.64
1 Week
4,587.03
1 Month
4,752.85
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3136 trading days (~12.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1649 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7784 | 191.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1130 | 0.83 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5253 | 11.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4747 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3136 days
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