V-Lab
Arich Enterprise Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
4,665.59
1 Week
4,761.79
1 Month
4,615.06
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 135% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0816 | 8.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8634 | 214.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1099 | 6.00*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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