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T-Flex Techvest PCB Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
8,709.96
1 Week
6,328.08
1 Month
4,645.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 483 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2097 | 3.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8236 | 211.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0694 | -0.61 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0018 | 5.42*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9909 | 301.56*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
483 days
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