V-Lab
Bull-Dog Sauce Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
188.22
decreased by 11.03
1 Week
203.08
increased by 3.83
1 Month
222.33
increased by 23.08
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6392 | 15.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 30.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9152 | 648.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0015 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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