Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
947.15
1 Week
938.19
1 Month
760.63
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 315 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1898 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7713 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
315 days
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