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Vigonvita Life Sciences Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

1 Day

5,012.80

increased by 40.36

1 Week

4,932.88

decreased by 39.56

1 Month

4,603.59

decreased by 368.85

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Vigonvita Life Sciences Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 6, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysAsymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow121
αARCH0.0000
0.36
βGARCH0.7450
γleverage0.5000
3,816.79***
λ₁tau intercept9.9999
2.02**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0143
13.80***
λ₃tau persistence0.9857
233.42***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

121
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.36
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7450
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
3,816.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.9999
2.02**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0143
13.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9857
233.42***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days