V-Lab
Fortune Oriental Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
11,666.44
1 Week
8,276.51
1 Month
4,239.73
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 9, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3155 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5265 | 0.27 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3155 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5946 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4054 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.684
Half-life:
2 days
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