V-Lab
Fortune Oriental Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
6,680.66
1 Week
6,262.01
1 Month
4,100.58
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 9, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 206% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7468 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1011 | 19.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7951 | 83.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2077 | 8.41*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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