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Fortune Oriental Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

6,680.66

decreased by 474.09

1 Week

6,262.01

decreased by 892.74

1 Month

4,100.58

decreased by 3,054.17

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Fortune Oriental Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 9, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 206% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.7468
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1011
19.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7951
83.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2077
8.41***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days