Thinca Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
19,246.43
1 Week
5,603.67
1 Month
3,044.70
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2024 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.3627 | 6.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6282 | 16.06*** |
| γleverage | -0.1385 | -2.34** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2,561.3157 |
0.922
Persistence8d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3627 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6282 | 16.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1385 | -2.34** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2,561.3157 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
8 days
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