HC HomeCenter Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
9,197.79
increased by 5,651.08
1 Week
5,863.11
increased by 2,316.40
1 Month
2,498.15
decreased by 1,048.56
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2007 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2486 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.1312 | 6.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7922 | 22.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.1466 | 1.81* |
0.997
Persistence209d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2486 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1312 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7922 | 22.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1466 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
209 days
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