V-Lab
Mexican Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
7.16%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
7.30%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
7.79%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0068 | 6.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.1246 | 8.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8621 | 66.40*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0068 | 6.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1246 | 8.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8621 | 66.40*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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