CBOE China ETF Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Monday, February 14th, 2022):
1 Day
100.86%
1 Week
99.65%
1 Month
96.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 04:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Feb 11, 2022Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.69 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 9.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8458 | 85.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4822 | -5.79*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6899 | 16.60*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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