V-Lab
Theta Edge Berhad GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
360.19%
increased by 24.57%
1 Week
359.28%
increased by 23.66%
1 Month
356.41%
increased by 20.79%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 24, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.03 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 479.6388 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0989 | 46.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9615 | 129.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0344 | 677.01*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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