V-Lab
Ross Stores Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.74%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
30.85%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
31.31%
decreased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 551 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.1062 | 7.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0467 | 77.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9987 | 7,623.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3216 | 49.30*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
551 days
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