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Bloomberg Euro Floating-Rate Note Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

0.20%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.20%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

0.20%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Euro Floating-Rate Note Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2003 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~140 daysv = 4.17 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0003
2.70***
αscore0.1351
24.66***
βpersistence0.9951
542.27***
νDF4.1692
21.41***

0.995

Persistence

140d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0003
2.70***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1351
24.66***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9951
542.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1692
21.41***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

140 days