Bloomberg Euro Floating-Rate Note Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.21%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.23%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2003 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 164 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8112 | 1.67* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2426 | 10.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7531 | 35.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1256 | -0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.0542 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | 0.0844 | 0.37 |
| γ4 | -0.3826 | -1.57 |
| γ5 | 0.9833 | 3.30*** |
| γ6 | -1.7126 | -2.82*** |
| γ7 | 2.9239 | 2.86*** |
| γ8 | -3.0970 | -2.63*** |
| γ9 | 1.6696 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
164 days
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