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V-Lab

Bloomberg Euro Floating-Rate Note Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.20%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.21%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.23%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg Euro Floating-Rate Note Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged EUR SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2003 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 164 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8112
1.67*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2426
10.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7531
35.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.1256
-0.58
γ20.0542
0.17
γ30.0844
0.37
γ4-0.3826
-1.57
γ50.9833
3.30***
γ6-1.7126
-2.82***
γ72.9239
2.86***
γ8-3.0970
-2.63***
γ91.6696
1.27

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

164 days