V-Lab
Dow Inc. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
43.53%
increased by 3.10%
1 Week
42.09%
increased by 1.66%
1 Month
40.94%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 20, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2245 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0948 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5678 | 4.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 4.1534 | 3.18*** |
| γ2 | -7.7474 | -3.25*** |
| γ3 | 5.0898 | 2.40** |
| γ4 | -0.9155 | -0.58 |
| γ5 | -1.4797 | -1.17 |
| γ6 | 0.9423 | 0.78 |
| γ7 | 0.4518 | 0.39 |
| γ8 | 1.2227 | 0.97 |
| γ9 | -4.1690 | -2.82*** |
| γ10 | 3.0899 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.663
Half-life:
2 days
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