V-Lab
Xexymix Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
57.43%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
62.39%
increased by 4.48%
1 Month
69.19%
increased by 11.28%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:46 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0529 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1516 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6757 | 9.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.5488 | 0.81 |
| γ2 | -0.9939 | -1.03 |
| γ3 | 1.3761 | 2.74*** |
| γ4 | -2.3388 | -3.61*** |
| γ5 | 3.2266 | 3.36*** |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
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