V-Lab
Hotland Innovation Asset MAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.85%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
14.96%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
19.08%
increased by 7.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2022 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 2.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8356 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.2128 | 2.57** |
| βGARCH | 0.8492 | 4.87*** |
| νDF | 2.6488 | 3.32*** |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8356 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2128 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8492 | 4.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6488 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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