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V-Lab

Hotland Innovation Asset MAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

11.85%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

14.96%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

19.08%

increased by 7.16%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hotland Innovation Asset MAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 31, 2022 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 2.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8356
0.90
αARCH0.2128
2.57**
βGARCH0.8492
4.87***
νDF2.6488
3.32***

0.849

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8356
0.90
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2128
2.57**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8492
4.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6488
3.32***

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days