V-Lab
Hotland Innovation Asset MAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
12.06%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
13.85%
increased by 1.76%
1 Month
15.34%
increased by 3.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2022 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2858 | 2.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.1913 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.4938 | 4.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.0616 | 0.37 |
0.716
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2858 | 2.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1913 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4938 | 4.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0616 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.716
Half-life:
2 days
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