V-Lab
Hotland Innovation Asset MAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.88%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
9.64%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
10.62%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2022 to Sep 30, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.1033 | 2.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5843 | 4.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0841 | 1.21 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2358 | 2.27** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7725 | 5.63*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.730
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1033 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5843 | 4.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0841 | 1.21 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2358 | 2.27** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7725 | 5.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.730
Half-life:
2 days
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