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V-Lab
V-Lab

Hotland Innovation Asset MAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

8.88%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

9.64%

increased by 0.70%

1 Month

10.62%

increased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hotland Innovation Asset MAN MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 31, 2022 to Sep 30, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.1033
2.98***
βGARCH0.5843
4.87***
γleverage0.0841
1.21
λ₁tau intercept0.2358
2.27**
λ₂forecast adj.0.7725
5.63***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.730

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1033
2.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5843
4.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0841
1.21
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2358
2.27**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7725
5.63***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.730

Half-life:

2 days