V-Lab
Hotland Innovation Asset MAN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
9.66%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
10.98%
increased by 1.30%
1 Month
11.79%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2022 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9750 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.2293 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3892 | 3.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.5762 | 1.52 |
| γ2 | -1.2052 | -2.30** |
| γ3 | 0.9298 | 3.90*** |
0.618
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9750 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2293 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3892 | 3.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.5762 | 1.52 |
| γ2 | -1.2052 | -2.30** |
| γ3 | 0.9298 | 3.90*** |
Persistence:
0.618
Half-life:
1 days
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