Utopya Turizm Insaat Islet ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
8,081.36
1 Week
6,411.64
1 Month
4,553.51
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1921 | 11.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8431 | 67.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.1921 | -4.97*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1831 | 0.08 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9814 | 506.40*** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1921 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8431 | 67.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1921 | -4.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1831 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9814 | 506.40*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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