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Worth Investment & Trading Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

15,541.80

increased by 1,999.94

1 Week

14,352.72

increased by 810.86

1 Month

18,866.61

increased by 5,324.75

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Worth Investment & Trading ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2015 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0486
2.32**
βGARCH0.9435
46.69***
γleverage0.0158
0.42

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0486
2.32**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9435
46.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0158
0.42

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-