How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	5.0000	0.04
αARCH	0.0152	1.84*
βGARCH	0.9869	442.15***
γleverage	-0.0041	-0.32

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	5.0000	0.04
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0152	1.84*
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9869	442.15***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0041	-0.32

V-Lab

Middle & West Delta Flour Mills Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Middle & West Delta Flour Mills Analyses