How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	111
αARCH	0.1744	6.32***
βGARCH	0.8191	36.22***
γleverage	-0.1744	-2.97***
λ₁tau intercept	2.5829	1.21
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0078	1.59
λ₃tau persistence	0.9883	196.72***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	111
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1744	6.32***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8191	36.22***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1744	-2.97***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	2.5829	1.21
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0078	1.59
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9883	196.72***

V-Lab

Vistry Group PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Vistry Group PLC Analyses