United Insur Co OF Pakistan Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
23,444.93
1 Week
22,324.44
1 Month
21,334.83
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2012 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
| αARCH | 0.0538 | 3.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9264 | 73.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0397 | 1.32 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0538 | 3.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9264 | 73.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0397 | 1.32 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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