V-Lab
Tokyo Cement Co (Lanka) Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6,338.76
decreased by 30.92
1 Week
4,481.77
decreased by 1,887.91
1 Month
3,505.90
decreased by 2,863.78
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0374 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9744 | 447.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0235 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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