V-Lab
Sreeleathers Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4,137.63
1 Week
4,787.88
1 Month
6,403.77
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2043 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7911 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0092 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6738 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1708 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8292 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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