V-Lab
Aitken Spence Plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6,766.41
1 Week
7,670.25
1 Month
5,916.25
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 182% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0332 | 3.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9366 | 109.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0603 | 3.01*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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