Saturn Oil & Gas Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
5,891.81
1 Week
6,899.59
1 Month
7,162.86
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 09:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 3, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.3262 | 5.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5133 | 10.77*** |
| γleverage | -0.3262 | -1.89* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0436 | 3.12*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9565 | 71.69*** |
0.676
Persistence2d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3262 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5133 | 10.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3262 | -1.89* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0436 | 3.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9565 | 71.69*** |
Persistence:
0.676
Half-life:
2 days
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