Pt Satyamitra Mitra Kemas Le ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13,218.07
1 Week
4,301.51
1 Month
2,754.84
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 11, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.3303 | 9.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7776 | 48.18*** |
| γleverage | -0.2257 | -4.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0023 | 2.50** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.3157 | 10.97*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3303 | 9.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7776 | 48.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2257 | -4.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0023 | 2.50** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3157 | 10.97*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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