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Pt Satyamitra Mitra Kemas Le ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

13,218.07

increased by 10,365.99

1 Week

4,301.51

increased by 1,449.43

1 Month

2,754.84

decreased by 97.24

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Pt Satyamitra Mitra Kemas Le ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 11, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow96
αARCH0.3303
9.66***
βGARCH0.7776
48.18***
γleverage-0.2257
-4.26***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.50
λ₂forecast adj.0.0023
2.50**
λ₃tau persistence0.3157
10.97***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3303
9.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7776
48.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2257
-4.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.50
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0023
2.50**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3157
10.97***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days