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Ral Yatirim Holding As Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

6,793.23

increased by 6,499.11

1 Week

1,524.89

increased by 1,230.77

1 Month

414.24

increased by 120.12

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ral Yatirim Holding As ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 29, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3791
0.57
αARCH0.0190
0.55
βGARCH0.9326
34.11***
γleverage0.0969
1.58

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3791
0.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0190
0.55
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9326
34.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0969
1.58

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-