How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

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Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	61
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1482	0.03
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8895	79.20***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0874	-0.01
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	0.03
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0415	0.03
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9585	23.08***

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Petrolimex Intl Trading ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Petrolimex Intl Trading Analyses