Onelife Capital Advisors Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
3,893.48
1 Week
3,150.08
1 Month
8,010.85
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 04:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 17, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.26 |
| αARCH | 0.0565 | 0.75 |
| βGARCH | 0.8322 | 14.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.2226 | 1.60 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0565 | 0.75 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8322 | 14.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2226 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Onelife Capital Advisors Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities