V-Lab
Misr Oils & Soap ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
8,487.09
1 Week
4,151.99
1 Month
3,068.35
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 13078 trading days (~51.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.2255 | 5.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7505 | 37.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0479 | 0.76 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.9310 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0220 | 2.37** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9780 | 121.47*** |
1.000
Persistence13078d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2255 | 5.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7505 | 37.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0479 | 0.76 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.9310 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0220 | 2.37** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9780 | 121.47*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
13078 days
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