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Misr Oils & Soap ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

8,487.09

increased by 5,423.89

1 Week

4,151.99

increased by 1,088.79

1 Month

3,068.35

increased by 5.15

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Misr Oils & Soap ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2002 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 13078 trading days (~51.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~13078 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.2255
5.20***
βGARCH0.7505
37.84***
γleverage0.0479
0.76
λ₁tau intercept0.9310
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.0220
2.37**
λ₃tau persistence0.9780
121.47***

1.000

Persistence

13078d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2255
5.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7505
37.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0479
0.76
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.9310
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0220
2.37**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9780
121.47***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

13078 days