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Km Sugar Mills Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

9,110.50

increased by 5,988.81

1 Week

4,746.39

increased by 1,624.70

1 Month

4,097.90

increased by 976.21

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Km Sugar Mills Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2005 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysAsymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0082
0.39
βGARCH0.8885
40.89***
γleverage0.2065
2.73***

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0082
0.39
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8885
40.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2065
2.73***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days