V-Lab
Km Sugar Mills Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
9,110.50
1 Week
4,746.39
1 Month
4,097.90
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2005 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0082 | 0.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.8885 | 40.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.2065 | 2.73*** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0082 | 0.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8885 | 40.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2065 | 2.73*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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