V-Lab
Kier Group PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,845.16
1 Week
5,047.75
1 Month
5,126.30
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 131% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.28 |
| αARCH | 0.0276 | 2.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9543 | 166.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0361 | 2.26** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0276 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9543 | 166.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0361 | 2.26** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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