V-Lab
Iware Supplychain Services Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
6,577.97
increased by 3,971.66
1 Week
3,629.66
increased by 1,023.35
1 Month
4,010.64
increased by 1,404.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1591 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8072 | 77.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0674 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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