Italian-Thai Development PCL ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
6,396.25
1 Week
6,700.86
1 Month
6,320.09
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1995 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.1917 | 3.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7713 | 13.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.1917 | -3.10*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.9143 | 0.51 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7402 | 5.37*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2598 | 2.21** |
0.867
Persistence5d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1917 | 3.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7713 | 13.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1917 | -3.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.9143 | 0.51 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7402 | 5.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2598 | 2.21** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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