Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Inversora Juramento Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

36,815.88

increased by 32,030.30

1 Week

9,089.76

increased by 4,304.18

1 Month

3,644.38

decreased by 1,141.20

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Inversora Juramento Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23105 trading days (~91.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~23105 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.8371
4.33***
βGARCH0.4128
1.89*
γleverage-0.5000
-0.80
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.7536
0.44
λ₃tau persistence0.2464
0.19

1.000

Persistence

23105d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8371
4.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4128
1.89*
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-0.80
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7536
0.44
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2464
0.19

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

23105 days