Inversora Juramento Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
36,815.88
1 Week
9,089.76
1 Month
3,644.38
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23105 trading days (~91.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.8371 | 4.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4128 | 1.89* |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -0.80 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7536 | 0.44 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2464 | 0.19 |
1.000
Persistence23105d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8371 | 4.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4128 | 1.89* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.80 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7536 | 0.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2464 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23105 days
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