How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	91
αARCH	0.2279	8.73***
βGARCH	0.7306	52.87***
γleverage	-0.2279	-1.11
λ₁tau intercept	5.9218	0.11
λ₂forecast adj.	0.3573	6.05***
λ₃tau persistence	0.6427	20.03***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	91
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.2279	8.73***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7306	52.87***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.2279	-1.11
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	5.9218	0.11
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.3573	6.05***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.6427	20.03***

V-Lab

International Agricultural Products ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other International Agricultural Products Analyses