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Hoang MAI Stone Joint Stock Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026

1 Day

6,507.33

increased by 3,854.49

1 Week

4,580.08

increased by 1,927.24

1 Month

1,849.07

decreased by 803.77

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Hoang MAI Stone Joint Stock ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2022 to Sep 15, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0453
1.39
αARCH0.0758
2.70***
βGARCH0.9046
56.60***
γleverage0.0393
0.50

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0453
1.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0758
2.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
56.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0393
0.50

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days