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PT Falmaco Nonwoven Industri Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

13,499.11

increased by 13,298.56

1 Week

2,837.69

increased by 2,637.14

1 Month

780.31

increased by 579.76

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PT Falmaco Nonwoven Industri ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 8, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.36
αARCH0.0208
0.55
βGARCH0.8914
24.35***
γleverage0.1755
0.93

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0208
0.55
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8914
24.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1755
0.93

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days