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Ferrum Sa Ceramica Y Metallu Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

6,034.98

decreased by 217.42

1 Week

6,092.25

decreased by 160.15

1 Month

6,555.83

increased by 303.43

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ferrum Sa Ceramica Y Metallu ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 26, 1994 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0548
2.16**
βGARCH0.9014
105.45***
γleverage0.0876
1.49

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0548
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9014
105.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0876
1.49

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-