Nasmed Ozel Saglik Hizmetler Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
4,695.31
1 Week
6,775.82
1 Month
5,595.21
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2021 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.63 |
| αARCH | 0.1539 | 4.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7845 | 48.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.1232 | 1.93* |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1539 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7845 | 48.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1232 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Nasmed Ozel Saglik Hizmetler Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities