V-Lab
DMR Unlu Mamuller Uretim GID ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2,348.82
1 Week
520.99
1 Month
174.65
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0938 | 7.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8799 | 69.55*** |
| γleverage | -0.0938 | -6.29*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9953 | 675.69*** |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0938 | 7.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8799 | 69.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0938 | -6.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9953 | 675.69*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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