V-Lab
Corporate Travel Management Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,502.94
increased by 3,975.02
1 Week
5,502.94
increased by 3,975.02
1 Month
5,502.94
increased by 3,975.02
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2010 to Aug 22, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0635 | 2.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 119.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0591 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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